Australia's Greying Population Puts Migrants at the Centre of Its 40-Year Plan
News · 2026-09-22 · 4 min read
Australia's latest Intergenerational Report (IGR) reads like a budget document, and most headlines have chased its deficit forecasts. Look past those and a bigger admission comes through. The government's own long-range modelling says the country cannot keep going without steady, planned immigration. If you are weighing jobs in Australia for South Africans, that admission matters more than any deficit figure.
Births are falling behind deaths
The official projection is blunt: by the 2060s, Australia will record more deaths each year than births. Fertility has been under replacement level for over half a century, and the IGR has cut its own estimate again, from 1.62 children per woman in 2023 to only 1.34 by 2065-66.
Japan, Germany, Italy and South Korea show where that road leads: economies shrinking as their populations age. Australia is not on that road, and the reason is net overseas migration (NOM). The report assumes a net 235,000 arrivals every year for the next four decades. Take that number away and the whole 40-year forecast loses its foundation.
Newcomers arrive younger
One detail is easy to miss. The median incoming migrant is 26 years old; the median existing resident is 38. So migration does more than lift the head count. It is the strongest single force keeping the workforce from greying.
Australia is one of the few rich countries that still expects its working-age population (15–64) to grow through the middle of the century. Migration delivers almost all of that growth. Without it, the projected expansion of the labour force simply does not happen.
The rosy figures stand on one assumption
The report's brighter numbers all rest on that same intake: an economy that doubles by 2065-66, real incomes 55% higher, and unemployment settling at about 4.25%. Cut the intake well below 235,000 a year and the ageing curve gets steeper sooner than the report expects. Health and aged care, already named as big drivers of future government spending, would feel the strain earlier, with fewer working-age taxpayers to fund them.
Care work is where the need will show
The IGR names a shift to a “care economy” outright. Health, disability support through the NDIS, and aged care are all set to expand as the number of people over 65 nearly doubles and the over-85 group nearly triples. These sectors have long relied on migrant workers, from hands-on carers to the wider health workforce. If demand grows as projected, skilled and semi-skilled visa routes into care jobs are likely to move closer to the centre of Australia's visa settings.
If you work in nursing, care or allied health at home, get your paperwork in order early: certified copies of qualifications (a commissioner of oaths can certify them), a SAPS police clearance when one is asked for, and an IELTS or PTE score if the employer or visa needs one.
Election promises versus the model
Here is the risk. The IGR treats 235,000 NOM a year as its baseline, while the Coalition and One Nation have both campaigned on cutting the intake well under that. The modelling the government stands behind and the policies floated from the opposition benches point in opposite directions.
For migration advisers, employers who depend on skilled visa routes and people planning a move, that is the figure to follow over the next few election cycles. The 39.3 million population projection matters less than whether the intake settings behind it survive domestic politics.
What South African applicants should take from this
Strip away the jargon and Australia's official 40-year outlook is really about migration, with the economics built on top. The report does not hedge: it says migration gives Australia “demographic resilience” that its ageing peers lack. Whether migration stays central is not really in doubt. Whether politicians keep the intake at the level the modelling needs is the open question. Watch the policy debate, keep your documents current, and plan with facts rather than headlines.
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