Australia’s Next 40 Years Lean on Newcomers: The Intergenerational Report for South African Job Seekers

News · 2026-09-28 · 4 min read

Once every three years, the federal government sits down and pictures Australia 40 years from now. The newest Intergenerational Report (IGR) is clear on one point: much of the country's future growth will come from people who decide to move there. If you are looking at jobs in Australia for South Africans, that is worth understanding.

Births Are Falling, Arrivals Fill the Gap

Australian families are getting smaller. The IGR expects the fertility rate to drop to 1.34 births per woman by 2065–66, a big fall from the 1.62 used in the previous report. In the 2060s, deaths are expected to overtake births for the first time.

The population is still projected to grow to 39.3 million by 2065–66. What makes up the difference is net overseas migration, assumed to average 235,000 people a year over the long run. The report says this gives Australia 'demographic resilience' compared with Germany, Italy and South Korea, where deaths already outnumber births.

Young Migrants, Bigger Workforce

Recent migrants have a median age of around 26. The existing resident population sits at 38. That gap is a key reason Australia's working-age population, people aged 15 to 64, should keep growing while it shrinks in many similar economies.

Ageing is still a major trend:

Median age is set to rise from 38.6 to 45 by 2062–63.
Australians aged 65+ will almost double in number.
Those aged 85+ will almost triple.

An older population needs more health and aged care, and those jobs need people to do them.

The Skills Australia Will Be Hunting For

The report points to several big shifts in the economy, and each one links to skills that will be needed:

Care work. An ageing population means more need for nurses, aged care workers, allied health professionals and disability support staff.
Cleaner energy. Australia has a net zero target of 2050 and wants to become a 'renewable energy superpower' through critical minerals, green hydrogen and green metals. That calls for engineers, technicians, trades and project specialists.
AI and digital change. The report admits the results of artificial intelligence are still uncertain, but says it will change which skills are worth most and how work gets done.
More services. Growth should keep moving toward services, which suits professional, technical and people-facing skills.

For South African tradespeople, the energy point stands out. Trades are named next to engineers and technicians. A trade test certificate is the usual starting point, and trades are normally assessed again in Australia through a skills assessment.

Growth, Income and Long Lives

Ageing is expected to slow growth from about 3% a year to about 2%. Even then, the economy should be more than twice today's size by 2065–66, with real per capita income 55% higher. Life expectancy is projected at 89.5 years for women and 86.1 for men.

For anyone thinking of moving, that points to a stable, wealthy country with a strong public health system where people live long lives. The report is honest about the strains too, including housing affordability for younger people and rising government spending.

Politics Can Move the Number

The 235,000 figure is an assumption. It is not a promise. The Opposition and One Nation have both said they would aim for much lower migration if they win power. Visa categories, priorities and settings can change with each government and budget.

That is why timing and preparation count. Rules and occupation lists change, so working from current information and putting together a solid application can make a real difference.

Getting Ready From South Africa

If Australia is on your list, the report backs up a few practical steps:

Look past today's shortages. The skills in demand now may not be the ones needed later. Focus on where the report sees long-term need, such as care, energy and technology.
Expect policy to shift. Check the current visa requirements instead of relying on old rules.
Get going early. Skills assessments, English tests and paperwork all take time. Sort out what you can at home first, such as an IELTS or PTE score if one is needed and certified copies of your qualifications if they are asked for.

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